all models

Society & Social Systems

Microsimulation Model

MIKA

Application

The Prognos Microsimulation model (MIKA) can be used to simulate the tax burden of individuals and households through social security contributions, wage and income tax, the solidarity surcharge as well as their entitlement to transfer payments under the German Social Code Book II (citizen’s allowance), the Housing Benefit Act (housing allowance) and the Federal Child Benefit Act (child supplement).

In addition to simulating tax and transfer payments for the current legal framework (status quo), MIKA can also be used to calculate the effects of changes to the legal framework or counterfactual policy scenarios. In addition to the effects on income distribution, this also includes estimates of fiscal effects (government expenditure and revenue).

Model core

MIKA is a static tax and transfer model based on personal and household data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). It consists of three modules: a social security module, an income tax module and a transfer module. To estimate the tax and transfer payments, MIKA incorporates the information available in the SOEP on the income situation as well as other socio-demographic characteristics of the individuals and households surveyed that are relevant for calculating the tax and transfer payments. These include, for example, age, gender, household constellation and information on housing costs.

Application examples and projects

Long-term care financing scenarios

2024
| Project

Higher numbers of care-dependent persons and increasing costs - our aging population is putting long-term care insurance to the test. A new analysis shows what the future financial require-ments will be.

Wage income developments 2025

2020
| Project

If German economic productivity increases, not every individual benefits to the same extent. These are the results of our study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

2022
| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

General report: Evaluation of the general statutory minimum wage

2020
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, we evaluated the impact of the statutory minimum wage in Germany since its introduction in 2015.

More on this model

Model type

Microsimulation model

Region covered

  • Germany
  • Federal states

Databases

Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)

 

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331
almut.kirchner@prognos.com

Go to profile
Yes, I consent to Prognos processing the personal data I have provided above in order to best address the request I have made. I can revoke my consent at any time with effect for the future by sending an e-mail to info@prognos.com. You can find further information in our data protection declaration.