Greenhouse gas projections 2024 expert appraisal
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection (BMWK), Federal Ministry for Transport and Digitization (BMDV)
2024
ifeu
The Federal Environment Agency published its 2024 greenhouse gas projection data in March 2024. The data evaluates current climate policy and estimate the levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted by Germany up to 2050.
The 2024 GHG projections indicate a reduction in GHG emission levels by 2030 of almost 64 percent compared to 1990, slightly exceeding the goals set in the Climate Protection Act.
The Federal Government commissioned the Council of Experts on Climate Change (ERK) to compile a special report to review the 2024 GHG projections. In parallel, Prognos and ifeu were commissioned with scientifically reviewing the projections data and ranking – as far as possible – the plausibility of the methodology and data used. This expert appraisal also serves as a scientific contribution to the further development of the GHG projections.
Our study shows: The methodology used for the projections is robust but not all assumptions appeared plausible – the reported meeting of targets is thus not reliable.
Our expert appraisal has come to the following conclusions:
For the purposes of the expert appraisal, we first compiled the projection data from the 2024 project report in the context of current economic and climate political developments. We then verified the plausibility of the methodology used and the robustness of the results. In addition, the appraisal contains recommendations for how the compilation of future reports can be improved.
The expert appraisal (PDF in German)
Project team: Alex Auf der Maur, Dr Andreas Kemmler, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Jan Limbers, Dr Alexander Piégsa, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen
Latest update: 03.06.2024
Senior Project Manager
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Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.