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Energy

GHD Energy Consumption

GHD

Application

The GHD energy consumption model calculates the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of the commercial, trade, and services industries, by sector. Based on this, necessary investments (new and replacement investments) and energy costs are derived. The model can be used to simulate, compare, and evaluate possible decarbonisation paths. In addition, it can be used to calculate the effect of energy and climate policy instruments.

Model core

The Prognos GHD model calculates the energy consumption and related GHG emissions of the commercial, trade, and services sector by application and energy source, in annual increments. It is a long-term, bottom-up simulation model. Central applications include space heating, hot water, process heat, mechanical energy, refrigeration, lighting, ICT, and process cooling. The energy consumption of the applications is calculated in the smallest proportion possible according to clearly defined categories.

The focus is on the detailed mapping of the sectors, the area used, and plant efficiencies. The usable area is differentiated according to the age of construction, building type, energy sources, and renovation status. In contrast, applications are differentiated according to their system types, their efficiency and their structure.

Application examples and projects

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures.

Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045

ongoing
| Project

Climate neutrality can only be achieved through higher energy efficiency. The German govern-ment's “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2050” dialogue forum prepares concrete measures.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+

2021
| Project

What might a climate-neutral energy system in Switzerland look like in 2050? Prognos modelled the Energy Perspectives 2050+ on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

Energy projections 2030/2050

2020
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics, Prognos has determined whether the Federal Government’s climate protection package will be enough for Germany to achieve its climate targets by 2030.

More on this model

Model type

Bottom-up deterministic simulation model

Modelled dimensions

  • Time
  • Commerce, trade, and services sector
  • Applications
  • Energy sources

Region covered

National

Time frame

1990 to 2050

Databases

  • AG-Energiebilanzen
  • Energy use (destatis)
  • National Inventory Report (UBA)

Input

  • Economic development
  • Employment development

Output

  • Final energy consumption by use and energy source
  • Greenhouse gas emissions

 

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331
almut.kirchner@prognos.com

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