Switzerland’s goal is to achieve climate-neutrality by 2050. This plan will be implemented within Switzerland’s “Long-term Climate Strategy.” The basis for this is a future energy system without fossil and nuclear energies, in which a safe, clean, affordable, and largely domestically produced energy supply is guaranteed. Therefore, the objectives of the energy and climate policies are closely linked. Climate-neutral energy supply “Our study shows that Switzerland can convert its energy supply to a climate-neutral standard by 2050," confirms project manager Dr Almut Kirchner. The technologies required, which are either in place or in development, have already demonstrated their functionality and potential contribution to the solution. They will, however, need to be implemented rapidly and comprehensively over the next 30 years. The key measures are the reduction of fossil fuel use and the comprehensive expansion of renewable energies for energy and heating supply. Since the electricity-based provision of heating and mobility will replace fossil fuels, this means higher energy requirements. Overall, however, the country can significantly reduce energy consumption per capita due to efficiency measures, which will result in the reduction of overall energy consumption. Electrical applications are also more efficient than fossil fuels. But, if climate neutrality is to be achieved by 2050, residual greenhouse gas emissions will also have to be offset via the capture and storage of CO2. Energy supply 2050: moderate additional costs and lower dependence on abroad The goal of achieving an energy supply that is as domestic and renewable as possible for 2050 will require increased investment in the renewal, modernisation and replacement of existing energy infrastructures, buildings, plants, equipment, and vehicles. With the net-zero target, this investment requirement increases by a further 8 percent. At the same time, significantly less energy is imported, thereby reducing dependence on foreign countries. Methodology The work was modelled using Prognos’ tried-and-tested, bottom-up energy system models, INFRAS and TEP Energy, and assembled by Prognos for overall synthesis. Using these models, the energy supply and demand (especially of electricity and district heating) are mapped in detail on the technical basis of the various consumption sectors and applications, as well as in terms of the power plant park, district heating, etc. The investment cycles and lifetimes of the durable capital goods in the energy system are taken into consideration. The numerous interactions between the system’s sub-sectors, which determine the overall dynamics, are also mapped. Energy Perspectives 2050+ project page (SFOE website) Energy perspectives 2050+: Summary (PDF in German, SFOE website) Energy perspectives 2050+: Short report (PDF in German, SFOE website) To the press release in German (SFOE website) Project team: Dr Almut Kirchner, Andreas Kemmler 28.10.2022 | Hydrogen excursus In the excursus we analyse the role of hydrogen in Switzerland’s future energy system. In addition to a general description and classification of hydrogen as an energy source, we address both future costs and domestic production potential. More 27.10.2022 | Hourly values of power generation and consumption The Prognos Energy Market model maps supply and demand on the European energy markets on an hourly basis until the year 2050. For the SFOE, our energy team examined hourly production and consumption values for Switzerland. The production of individual technologies (run-of-river power, storage hydropower, pumped storage, nuclear power plants, wind, biomass, and others) is shown in each case. In addition, the hourly demand for flexible and inflexible loads as well as the external trade in power were also presented. The published data include seven selected years between 2020 and 2050 from the Business-as-Usual and ZERO Basis scenarios with 50 and 60 years of nuclear energy runtime. The results can be downloaded from the SFOE website: Documents - Scenario Results - EP2050+ Hourly Power Generation and Consumption values 21.12.2021 | Technical report on the Energy Outlook 2050+ The Energy Perspectives are a set of different scenarios that examine the space of possibilities and options for action to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. In the newly published technical report, the authors systematically explain extensive details. To the report 13.11.2021 | Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+ presentation On November 13, Dr. Andreas Kemmler was invited and attended the “Energy Perspectives 2050/Energy Transition 2050 - New analyses for Switzerland and Germany” information event. After a welcome by energie-wende-ja's president, Dr. Ruedi Meier, Dr. Andreas Kemmler presented the Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+. Among other things, the event served to highlight the costs and benefits of the Swiss and German energy perspectives and to discuss their political feasibility. A comparison of the energy perspectives of the two countries highlighted strengths and weaknesses in the objectives and approach. Barbara Schaffner (National Councillor GLP ZH), Kurt Egger (National Councillor Green TG), Leo Keller (President of the Energy+Klima SP AG Technical Committee) as well as Felix Nipkow (Head of the Renewable Energy Department, Swiss Energy Foundation SES) participated in a more in-depth panel discussion. 13.10.2021 | Excursuses: Winter energy and biomass in Swiss energy generation up to the year 2050+ The Swiss climate strategy’s objective is to achieve the balancing of annual greenhouse gases (net zero) by 2050 at the latest. Currently, Switzerland’s energy supply consists mainly of hydropower and nuclear energy. Nuclear power stations are to be closed when they reach the end of their service life, which will in turn give increased importance to hydropower stations and renewable energies. On behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), and together with its partner Infras, Prognos analysed the future coverage of winter energy requirements within the framework of the Energy Perspectives 2050+, and the possible uses of biomass in Switzerland's energy system. The results of the analyses have now been published in the form of excursuses to the Energy Perspectives 2050+. To the report 08.09.2021 | Excurses: Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+ As part of the Energy Perspectives 2050+, Prognos, together with its partners TEP Energy GmbH, INFRAS AG and Ecoplan AG, prepared a series of excurses. These excurses dig deeper into the role of different power generation technologies and CO2 extraction and storage, in the context of the net-zero scenario (ZERO scenario). The excurses on thermal power and combined heat and power generation, as well as negative emission technologies and CCS potentials have now been published. To the report Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Dr Almut Kirchner Partner, Director View profile Dr Andreas Kemmler Senior Project Manager View profile Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. NetworkNature Annual Conference 2024 25. September 2024 | Event Greta Dekker will be attending the NetworkNature annual conference and talking to the specialist audience about nature-based solutions. Read more Policy scenarios for the 2025-2027 projection reports ongoing | Project Prognos and its partners support the preparation of the German government's 2025 to 2027 greenhouse gas projection reports. Read more Scenario analysis for the long-term strategy Negative emissions ongoing | Project Prognos is preparing a scenario analysis for dena and the BMWK to calculate the demand for and potential of negative emissions in Germany. Read more Regulatory check for sales products in the energy industry 2024 | Project Prognos supported an energy supplier with integrating sustainability requirements into the sales department’s product decision process. Read more Climate protection investments for the transformation of the energy system 2024 | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, we calculated the investments that will be required to restructure capital stock in the course of the envisaged net zero transition. Read more 4th Trilateral Working Group Meeting on the Southern Hydrogen Corridor 18. July 2024 | Event Jens Hobohm takes part in an event organised by the working group on the Southern Hydrogen Corridor at the invitation of the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Read more Cost effectiveness of energy-efficiency housing refurbishment 2024 | Project On behalf of the WWF Germany, using 32 case studies, we calculated the cost effectiveness of refurbishment measures for detached houses and apartment buildings. Read more Regulatory requirements for carbon accounting 2024 | Project Which carbon accounting requirements will businesses have to be aware of in the future and what, specifically, will present the greatest challenge? Read more Greenhouse gas projections 2024 expert appraisal 2024 | Project For the Council of Experts on Climate Change we conducted an expert appraisal to review the Federal Environment Agency’s greenhouse gas projection data. Read more Reducing emissions in primary industry 2024 | Project Primary industry will have to achieve massive reductions in CO2 output by 2045. The Office of Technology Assessment commissioned Prognos with demonstrating the opportunities for a successful transformation. Read more 2nd Cohesion for Transitions Conference & Meetings 4. - 5. June 2024 | Event Our colleagues are travelling to the conference as part of their work for the Cohesion for Transitions (C4T) platform and are chairing both a meeting of the science network and a working group. Read more Scenarios for calculating the cost of Germany’s transport transition 2024 | Project What level of investment will be required to ensure a climate-neutral transport sector by 2045? We calculated this on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, based on three scenarios. Read more Energy efficiency gap analysis 2024 | Project Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation. Read more Economic impact analysis for selected SDGs 2024 | Project A foundation group commissioned us to use KPIs to visualise the impact of its activities within identified focus SDGs. Read more Electricity grid expansion makes headway 2020 | Project For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der. Read more Support for the Just Transition Platform 2024 | Project Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management. Read more 12th Energy Transition Monitoring 2024 | Project The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red. Read more Annual Energy Transition Monitoring ongoing | Project What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw. Read more German energy market design 2024 | Project In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw. Read more Greenhouse gas effects of subsidies in Germany 2024 | Project The Federal Government has commissioned Prognos and other scientific institutes to analyse the climate impact of current state subsidies: Which measures are climate-damaging, which are climate-friendly? Read more Energate Forum: Industry meets Energy 7. May 2024 | Event At the energate Forum, energy market expert Sven Kreidelmeyer will give a keynote speech on the topic: Quo vadis energy prices. Read more Alternative transport scenario for Germany 2024 | Project Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development. Read more Ex-post analysis of energy consumption in Switzerland 2022 2023 | Project update Final energy consumption in Switzerland for the year 2022 was around 4 percent less than in the year 2021. Mobility (32 percent) accounted for the largest share. Read more Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland ongoing | Project What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions. Read more Climate path implementation in Baden-Württemberg 2024 | Project In Baden-Württemberg, emissions are to be reduced by a further 23% by 2030. As part of a multi-stage concept, Prognos examines the challenges and opportunities for action in the transfor-mation context. Read more Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany 2023 | Project How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW. Read more Climate-impacting transformation in the transport sector ongoing | Project The latest geopolitical and economic developments present a challenge for the ecological transi-tion of transport. Prognos develops measures for the BMDV. Read more Reforming environmentally harmful subsidies 2023 | Project On behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, we examined the effects of phasing out climate damaging subsidies in the transport and industry sectors. Read more Communication support for the building of the 380 kV West Coast Line 2023 | Project The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein. Read more Analyses of Swiss energy use ongoing | Project On behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), we conduct an annual analysis of the development of energy consumption in Switzerland. Read more Energy prices for industry, an international comparison 2023 | Project Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030. Read more The Circular Week 2023 24. - 25. October 2023 | Event From October 24th to 25th, Hanne Hagedorn will be in Warsaw for the Green Economy Network.NRW as part of the Circular Economy Week 2023. Read more Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials 2023 | Project Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains. Read more Support for the Cohesion for Transitions platform ongoing | Project The EU’s C4T platform supports structurally weak regions in their transition to a carbon-free and resilient Europe. In this context, Prognos is responsible for establishing a scientific forum. Read more Electricity price forecast 2023 2023 | Project In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw. Read more Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices 2023 | Expertise The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things. Read more Climate policy classification for LNG 2023 | Project How much LNG can it be? Prognos prepared two studies for the German government's Science Platform for Climate Protection (WPKS) to address this question. Read more Green electricity atlas Project What do the targets of the Renewable Energy Sources Act mean for the German regions? The Prognos Energieatlas shows the availability of green electricity – in all 400 districts and independent cities. Read more Economic efficiency of heat pumps 2023 | Project For a paper by Environmental Action Germany, we provided case studies on the question of whether the switch to heat pumps in typical single- and multi-family homes is more economical than exchanging gas boilers. Read more Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany 2022 | Project A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes. Read more Accompanying research on the FONA strategy ongoing | Project The Research for Sustainability (FONA) funding programme is intended to contribute to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Will this target be achieved and which methods can be used to measure this? We investigate this together with partners for the BMBF. Read more Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors 2023 | Project One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages. Read more Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality 2023 | Project How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures. Read more Gas balance: Too little is being saved 2023 | Project update Although German gas storage tanks remain at good levels, our vbw monitoring revealed that sav-ings due to behavioural changes were no longer detectable. Read more Accelerated climate protection does pay off 2023 | Project If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM. Read more Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein ongoing | Project How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation? Read more Overall impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation on the German economy ongoing | Project For the first time, an expert report for the Federal Ministry of Economics will jointly assess the economic impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation. Read more Sustainable end-of-life vehicle recycling 2023 | Project Circular economy in practice: As part of the MaterialLoop project, we have been working with Audi and TSR on how more materials from end-of-life vehicles can be used in the production of new vehicles. Read more Evaluation of the European Green Deal ongoing | Project How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO). Read more Mild weather in winter takes off the pressure 2023 | Project update So far, Germany has made it through the winter with relatively little gas. But savings will still be necessary if a gas shortage is to be prevented. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more