Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+

Switzerland’s goal is to achieve climate-neutrality by 2050. This plan will be implemented within Switzerland’s “Long-term Climate Strategy.” The basis for this is a future energy system without fossil and nuclear energies, in which a safe, clean, affordable, and largely domestically produced energy supply is guaranteed. Therefore, the objectives of the energy and climate policies are closely linked.

Climate-neutral energy supply

“Our study shows that Switzerland can convert its energy supply to a climate-neutral standard by 2050," confirms project manager Dr Almut Kirchner. The technologies required, which are either in place or in development, have already demonstrated their functionality and potential contribution to the solution. They will, however, need to be implemented rapidly and comprehensively over the next 30 years.

The key measures are the reduction of fossil fuel use and the comprehensive expansion of renewable energies for energy and heating supply. Since the electricity-based provision of heating and mobility will replace fossil fuels, this means higher energy requirements. Overall, however, the country can significantly reduce energy consumption per capita due to efficiency measures, which will result in the reduction of overall energy consumption. Electrical applications are also more efficient than fossil fuels. But, if climate neutrality is to be achieved by 2050, residual greenhouse gas emissions will also have to be offset via the capture and storage of CO₂.

Energy supply 2050: moderate additional costs and lower dependence on abroad

The goal of achieving an energy supply that is as domestic and renewable as possible for 2050 will require increased investment in the renewal, modernisation and replacement of existing energy infrastructures, buildings, plants, equipment, and vehicles. With the net-zero target, this investment requirement increases by a further 8 percent. At the same time, significantly less energy is imported, thereby reducing dependence on foreign countries.

Methodology

The work was modelled using Prognos’ tried-and-tested, bottom-up energy system models, INFRAS and TEP Energy, and assembled by Prognos for overall synthesis. Using these models, the energy supply and demand (especially of electricity and district heating) are mapped in detail on the technical basis of the various consumption sectors and applications, as well as in terms of the power plant park, district heating, etc. The investment cycles and lifetimes of the durable capital goods in the energy system are taken into consideration. The numerous interactions between the system’s sub-sectors, which determine the overall dynamics, are also mapped.

Energy Perspectives 2050+ project page (SFOE website)

Energy perspectives 2050+: Summary (PDF in German, SFOE website)

Energy perspectives 2050+: Short report (PDF in German, SFOE website)

To the press release in German (SFOE website)

Project team: Dr Almut Kirchner, Andreas Kemmler