all projects

Promoting the use of electric buses in local public transport

Client

Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK)

Year

2024

Partner

PwC, Institute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelberg (ifeu), CP/COMPARTNER Agency for Communication, EEBC European Electrical Bus Company


How can we achieve a shift in local public transport?

The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection has been funding the market launch of e-buses since 2018. Together with ifeu, CP/COMPARTNER Agentur für Kommunikation and EEBC European Electrical Bus Company, we investigated how effective this funding has been.

These are the results:

  • Increase in the e-bus fleet: At the beginning of the funding period in 2018, there were only about 200 e-buses in Germany. By 2023, this number had increased to over 2,600 vehicles. Of these, around 1,500 additional e-buses can be directly attributed to the funding program.
  • Broad support: The BMWK funded 50 battery bus projects with 65 transport companies in 13 federal states, providing 478 million euros for this purpose.
  • Strong market position: The market share of German e-bus manufacturers rose from 18.5 percent to 63 percent in the same period. In 2023, 96 percent of the battery buses receiving funding were produced in Germany and Europe.
  • More powerful batteries: Between 2020 and 2023, the average battery capacity increased by about 35 percent – from around 260 to about 350 kilowatt hours.
  • Greater range: The daily mileage of battery buses increased by 27 percent – from 135 to 172 kilometers.

Our approach

Prognos analysed the electric bus market in Germany by means of a comprehensive industry analysis, in which market data on fleet development, market shares and industry structure were evaluated.

In addition, a detailed cost comparison was carried out between electric and diesel buses for different bus categories, which took into account not only the acquisition costs but also the operating and maintenance costs. This determined the extent to which the funding addressed the additional costs for electric buses. This provided crucial insights for the evaluation of the funding measures.

Links and downloads

Study (PDF)

More information at PWC (in German) 

Project team: Alex Auf der Maur, Maike Breitzke, Nils Brüggeshemke, Thomas Hans Berr Craemer, Julia Dick, Ben Gibbels, Alexander Labinsky, Tim Trachsel

Last update: 12.12.2024

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Alex Auf der Maur

Senior Project Manager

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Extra-high voltage line Ganderkesee – St. Hülfe

2023
| Project

Grid operator TenneT has put an important power line into operation in Lower Saxony. Prognos supported the communication for the project.

Public participation in the Rostock Südstadt district

2024
| Project

What will the future look like in the Südstadt district of Rostock? In an innovative and co-creative public participation process, Prognos and the participants developed criteria for a planning concept its further development.

How far are the regions on the road to a circular economy?

2025
| Project update

Prognos has developed a tool for the Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI) that supports cities and regions in monitoring their circular economy activities.

Economic potential of the green tech sector in Bavaria

2024
| Project

How powerful is the green tech industry in Bavaria? What is its economic significance? We examined these questions on behalf of the vbw using our envigos model.

Mid-term evaluation of the public sector loan facility

ongoing
| Project

The Public Sector Loan Facility is an EU financing instrument to ensure a socially just transition to climate neutrality in the regions. Prognos and partners are evaluating the instrument.

Support for the Saxony-Anhalt Citizens’ Advisory Board on Structural Change

ongoing
| Project

Prognos supports the citizens’ advisory council in incorporating the perspectives of the population into decision-making processes and advises the responsible staff unit of the State Chancellery.

Resilience and sovereignty of German industry

ongoing
| Project

German industry is dependent on raw materials and preliminary products from abroad. On behalf of the Netzwerk Zukunft der Industrie e. V., Prognos analyses the supply chains and provides recommendations for action.

In dialogue – electricity grid expansion in Germany

2023
| Project

Prognos supports transmission and distribution system operators in the planning and construction communication of the various power line construction projects at the extra-high and high-voltage level.

Digitisation strategy for Brandenburg

2021
| Project

The digital transformation has long been underway in Brandenburg's economy as well. Prognos is developing a strategic framework for action to successfully exploit the potential of digitisation.

City of Cologne Urban Development Strategy - Economy

2024
| Project

In order to secure and sustainably design commercial space in Cologne, Prognos developed a new urban development concept for the City of Cologne in exchange with stakeholders and members of the public.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more