all models

Energy

Residential Sector Model

ProGRESS

Application

The Prognos Residential Sector model ProGRESS calculates the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of private households. Based on this, necessary investments (new and replacement investments) and energy costs are derived. The model can be used to simulate, compare, and evaluate possible decarbonisation paths. In addition, the model can be used to calculate the impact of energy and climate policy instruments.

Model core

The Prognos Residential Sector model calculates the energy consumption and related GHG emissions of the private households sector by application and energy sources in annual increments. It is a long-term, bottom-up, simulation model. The model takes into account the service life of building parts and plants (investment cycles), technology costs, and energy prices. Central applications include space heating, hot water, building services, cooking, lighting, ICT, as well as household appliances (e. g., washing, drying, cooling, freezing). The energy consumption of the applications is calculated in as much detail as possible according to clearly defined categories. The focus is on the detailed depiction of residential buildings and living spaces; these are differentiated according to age of the building, building type, energy sources, renovation status.

Application examples and projects

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures.

Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045

ongoing
| Project

Climate neutrality can only be achieved through higher energy efficiency. The German govern-ment's “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2050” dialogue forum prepares concrete measures.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Energy projections 2030/2050

2020
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics, Prognos has determined whether the Federal Government’s climate protection package will be enough for Germany to achieve its climate targets by 2030.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

More on this model

Model type

Bottom-up deterministic simulation model

Modelled dimensions

  • Time
  • Building type
  • Applications
  • Energy sources

Region covered

National

Time frame

1990 to 2060

Databases

  • AG-Energiebilanzen
  • Energy use (Destatis)
  • National Inventory Report (UBA)
  • Microcensus on the living situation of households (Destatis)
  • Buildings and dwellings (Destatis)

Input

  • Population development
  • Household development

Output

  • Energy consumption
  • Greenhouse gas emissions

 

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331
almut.kirchner@prognos.com

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