Germany Potential Index:
Digitalisation to counter the
skilled-worker shortage

Digitalisation can help lessen the negative consequences of the increasing shortage of skilled workers in Germany. Our scenario calculation shows that if digital solutions are more extensively applied in the working context, this could decrease the demand for skilled workers in Germany by up to 1.5 million people.

The Potential Index, compiled on behalf of Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications, calculates the potential of digitalisation for the labour market for each individual district in Germany.

Regional differences in the potential of digitalisation

The application of digital technologies and solutions can help reduce the skilled-worker shortage by 2035 across all of Germany's districts and municipalities. But not all tasks across all professions are so easily “digitalised”. Some professions and roles benefit less from the increased efficiency gained by digital support.

There are significant regional differences depending on the respective economic structure. Regions with a more extensively digitalised economic structure, particularly those in the south and the east, will have greater potential for digitalisation in the labour market by the year 2035 than regions in the north and, in some cases, the west.

Potential Index for four areas

In order to obtain a realistic image of the potential of digitalisation at district level, we differentiated four application areas: Environment & Mobility, Business, Health & Social as well as Public Administration.

Realising the potential of digitalisation for the labour market would have a tangible positive impact on people across Germany:

• Environment & Mobility Public transport services can be improved through increased digitalisation allowing a good 510 million additional people to be transported. As a result, around 361 million car journeys per year can be avoided.
• Business: Digitalisation is significant for Germany's increased economic performance. This means a gross value added of 72.9 billion euros.
• Health & Social Efficiency gains through digital solutions could improve health care and ensure patients have access to 9.9 million additional doctor consultations per year.
• Public Administration: Through the increased digitalisation of public administration services waiting times could be significantly reduced. Overall, around 6 minutes can be saved per public authority visit.

Our approach

We determined how the size of the digitalisation potential for the labour market up to the year 2035, for each of Germany’s districts. The Prognos skilled worker model was used for this, using a measure for estimating substitution potential from the Institute for Employment Research.

With help from artificial intelligence, we outlined the four areas (Environment & Mobility, Business, Health & Social as well as Public Administration) and then mapped the digitalisation potential at district level for each of them.

The opportunities and limitations of increased digitalisation in the working environment were discussed with experts from businesses, research and science and their estimates expanded on. In addition, example calculations were used to show the concrete societal applications of digitalisation.

Links and downloads

To the interactive Potential Index (in German)

To the study (PDF in German)

To Q&A (Vodafone Institute website, in German)

Project team: Dr Oliver Ehrentraut, Markus Hoch, Josh Klier, Dr Georg Klose, Philipp Kreuzer, Dr Andreas Sachs, Jonathan-Aton Talamo, Hauke Toborg 

Latest update: 23.07.2024

Press contact

For press enquiries please contact the Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications:

Laura Caspers | Corporate Communications Expert | laurakatryn.caspers@vodafone.com