Climate Neutrality Foundation
2022
A number of expert opinions are now providing potential answers to the question, “How can Germany become climate-neutral by the year 2045?” These have come from, for example: the Foundation for Climate Neutrality, Agora Energiewende, and Agora Verkehrswende (Climate Neutral Germany 2045), the BDI ("Climate Paths 2.0"), the German Energy Agency ("Rise of Climate Neutrality"), the Federal Ministry of Economics ("Long-Term Scenarios") or from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) project and the MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) in the context of the Kopernikus Project Ariadne.
Together with the consortia, Prognos carried out a structured comparison of the five climate neutrality scenarios. The goal: to bring transparency to the debate on a climate-neutral Germany. The present comparison shows the similarities and differences between the results and the underlying assumptions of the reports.
The five studies produce similar results, especially for the period up to 2030 – but differ in some cases in the underlying assumptions and with regard to the results over the longer term.
A consistent picture exists above all about how necessary hydrogen and e-fuel are for achieving the goal of climate neutrality. However, there are still different assumptions in development about the quantity and use in the different sectors. In the long term, however, all scenarios expect that electricity will be the dominant energy source in the energy system and that electrification will increase significantly across all sectors.
On the Climate Neutrality Foundation website you will find: Scenario Comparison (PDF, in German)
More information and the data attachment of the senario comparison (in German)
Sebastian Lübbers, Marco Wünsch, Miriam Lovis
Project Manager
Principal
Grid operator TenneT has put an important power line into operation in Lower Saxony. Prognos supported the communication for the project.
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Prognos supports transmission and distribution system operators in the planning and construction communication of the various power line construction projects at the extra-high and high-voltage level.
Electricity prices are closely linked to the development of gas prices. Using three supply scenarios for natural gas we developed forecasts for the development of electricity prices up to the year 2045.
Using a target scenario, we investigated how Thuringia can achieve its climate goals on behalf of the Thuringian Energy Ministry.
For the Council of Experts on Climate Change we conducted an expert appraisal to review the Federal Environment Agency’s greenhouse gas projection data.
Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.