Prognos has conducted a short study on the topic of "Security of Supply" for the Stiftung Klimaneutralität (Climate Neutrality Foundation). The study illustrates how and whether the security of supply is achieved with the electricity system in the Prognos scenarios KN2050 and KN2045 from the study "Climate Neutral Germany". For this purpose, our electricity system team has compared these scenarios with scenarios from the study on supply security in the electricity market commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) in 2019. Secure power supply in the future The scenarios of the "Climate Neutral Germany" study show a high level of supply security on the electricity market until 2030 and beyond. On the one hand, this can be seen from our electricity market modelling. On the other hand, this also emerges from a comparison with the detailed study commissioned by the BMWi from 2019 concerning electricity demand, the expansion of renewable energies, controllable power plant capacity, and import capacities. "The high security of supply on the electricity market can be maintained in an ambitious energy transition scenario in line with new European climate targets of 55% greenhouse gas savings in 2030 compared to 1990," explains project manager Hanno Falkenberg. Essential building blocks for ensuring the security of supply are the expansion of controllable power plant capacity in Germany and increased exchange capacities within Europe. Market design & security of supply The electricity market is characterized as an energy-only market. This means that only the amount of electricity produced is remunerated. Due to the balance group and balancing energy system, the balancing power, and the capacity reserve, the market is in principle suitable for stimulating the development of controllable power plant capacity in the long term. Incentives such as time-variable tariffs for larger shares of electricity consumption should continue to be created to make demand more flexible. In addition, grid charges should in the future reflect the respective scarcity of the grid situation. To the study on the website stiftung-klima.de (in German) Authors: Elias Althoff, Hanno Falkenberg, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Greenhouse gas projections 2024 expert appraisal 2024 | Project For the Council of Experts on Climate Change we conducted an expert appraisal to review the Federal Environment Agency’s greenhouse gas projection data. Read more Energy efficiency gap analysis 2024 | Project Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation. Read more Electricity grid expansion makes headway 2020 | Project For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der. Read more 12th Energy Transition Monitoring 2024 | Project The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red. Read more Annual Energy Transition Monitoring ongoing | Project What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw. Read more German energy market design 2024 | Project In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw. Read more Greenhouse gas effects of subsidies in Germany 2024 | Project The Federal Government has commissioned Prognos and other scientific institutes to analyse the climate impact of current state subsidies: Which measures are climate-damaging, which are climate-friendly? Read more Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany 2023 | Project How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW. Read more Communication support for the building of the 380 kV West Coast Line 2023 | Project The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein. Read more Energy prices for industry, an international comparison 2023 | Project Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030. Read more Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials 2023 | Project Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains. Read more Electricity price forecast 2023 2023 | Project In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw. Read more Green electricity atlas Project What do the targets of the Renewable Energy Sources Act mean for the German regions? The Prognos Energieatlas shows the availability of green electricity – in all 400 districts and independent cities. Read more Gas balance: Saving efforts must be intensified 2023 | Project update If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter. Read more Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality 2023 | Project How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures. Read more Evaluation of the European Green Deal ongoing | Project How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO). Read more 11th Energy Transition Monitoring 2023 | Project Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals. Read more Regulation of third-party access to heating networks 2022 | Project The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK. Read more Interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung 2022 | Expertise Energy expert Dr Almut Kirchner talks to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung about the Swiss energy system. Read more The world negotiates on climate 2022 | Expertise On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise. Read more Electricity price forecast 2022 | Project How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw. Read more Climate-neutral electricity sector 2035 2022 | Project This analysis for Agora Energiewende shows how the transformation of the German electricity sector can succeed by 2035. Read more Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios 2022 | Project Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios. Read more Decentralised heat supply in a climate-neutral Germany 2022 | Project What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation. Read more Hydrogen: Energy carrier of the future? 2021 | Project The journey towards climate neutrality is gaining momentum. Hydrogen is a key building block to achieving it. Read more Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 2021 | Project Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050. Read more EU’s Global Leadership in Renewables 2020 | Project Prognos, together with COWI, CEPS, and Capgemini invent, examines Europe's position and competitiveness in global renewable energy value chains. Read more Prognos Charging Report 2020 2020 | Project The Prognos Charging Report 2020 conducted on behalf of EnBW (Energie Baden-Württemberg) provides an overview of the status quo of charging infrastructure. Read more 8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition 2020 | Project For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Read more Climate Path for Germany 2018 | Project How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI). Read more Future of th electricity system II 2018 | Project How can the transition to a power supply based on renewable energies by 2050 be successfully managed? This question is answered by a study for WWF Germany. Read more Ex-post analysis of Swiss energy consumption 2015 2016 | Project Swiss energy consumption in the last 15 years has been slightly reduced. Technological progress and policy intervention played a central role, as shown by the analysis conducted by Prognos, TEP and Infras. Read more Energy scenarios for the Federal Government Energy Concept 2010 | Project The energy concept formulates scenario-based guidelines for a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more